Historical Geography Journal ISSN 2782-6511

Dmitry V. Sarychev
Voronezh State University
Voronezh, Russia
E-mail: sarychev.geo@gmail.com
ORCID: 0000-0002-3755-0108

Grigory L. Zemtsov
Candidate of Historical Sciences, Lipetsk State Pedagogical University
Lipetsk, Russia
E-mail: grizem@rambler.ru
ORCID: 0000-0002-7177-7242

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UDC 902.2(470.61):912.648
DOI: 10.58529/2782-6511-2023-2-1-6-23

ABSTRACT. The paper is devoted to an archaeological predictive modeling technique with GIS and machine learning based on maximal entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). Archaeological sites of the late roman time presented by settlements of Kashirka-Sedelok type (mid-3rd — early 4th century AD) in the Upper Don basin were the modeling objects. We found out that there are 169 known sites of such type in the study region, and collected all available information on their locations into a geodatabase including our own field survey data. The coordinates of these sites split into training and testing subsets served for developing a predictive model with MaxEnt. Environmental GIS-layers based on a digital elevation model and thematic maps were the model predictors. We made such predictors to reflect the paleogeography of the Upper Don basin in the study time period by choosing relatively stable landscape features of relief, bedrock, climate, hydrography and soils of the area. The trained model analyzed through more than 7 million cells of 90×90 m with overall area of 59 400 sq. km to identify potentially suitable areas for the Kashirka-Sedelok settlements and found 29 860 ha the most suitable areas (less than 1 % of the study area) as the result. The efficiency of the conducted modeling, evaluated on the testing sites, is high based on metrics of receiver operating characteristic (AUC = 0,915) and Kvamme’s Gain (KG = 0,97). The results of modeling serve as an agenda for the upcoming archaeological surveys in the region

KEYWORDS: archaeological predictive modeling, APM, maximal entropy, MaxEnt, late roman time, archaeological sites of the Kashirka-Sedelok type, GIS

For citation: Sarychev D.V., Zemtsov G.L. Predictive Archaeological Modeling with MaxEnt (Late Roman Settlements in The Upper Don Basin Case) // Historical Geography Journal. 2023. Vol. 2. № 1. P. 6–23.

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Alexandr M. Kolokolov
State Museum-Reserve «Kulikovo field»
Tula, Russia
E-mail: kam@kulpole.tula.net
ORCID: 0000-0002-6099-6319

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UDC 902.6(47)
DOI: 10.58529/2782-6511-2023-2-1-24-43

ABSTRACT. The article deals with the problems of chronology of the 10th century sites, located between the Oka and Don rivers. Analysis of the topography of the settlements and the range of finds from them allows them to be divided into three periods — early, middle and late. In the first half of the 10th century there are still sites from the early period that appeared in the 9th century. They are associated with the Upper Oka section of the Don trade route. These sites are located on the banks of its main thoroughfares. Their ceramic complex consists of ceramics of the Romensky type, and a small percentage of circular pottery of the Saltovsky and Volintsev types. The early settlements cease to exist as a result of military invasion. This event is archaeologically documented at the Suprut hill fort. After that, the settlements of the middle period appear. This process is linked to the termination of the Upper Oka section of the Don trade route. The sites of the middle period are situated at a distance from the major waterways of the region. Their complexes contain items of Northern European and Old Russian origin. The ceramic complex consists of stucco ceramics of the Romensky type and a small percentage of wheel-thrown pottery vessels. The sites of the middle period exist throughout the second half of the 10th century. The late stage settlements appear at the end of the 10th century. They retain a topography similar to that of the middle period settlements. Their ceramic complex contains a large percentage of Old Russian pottery. Life at the late stage settlements continues into the 11th century.

KEYWORDS: archaeology, Tula region, Oka-Don watershed, Romensk culture, Slavic colonisation, 10th century

For citation: Kolokolov A.M. Chronology of the 10th Century Archaeological Sites in the Territory of the Oka-Don Watershed // Historical Geography Journal. 2023. Vol. 2. № 1. P. 24–43.

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